“If you get on the right school of smallmouths you could be competitive and you could always catch a kicker spot, but I’ve been following the local events since it went off limits and I know of three ten-pound largemouths caught in the past few weeks.”

Should be Good
After a cold winter, the lake is poised to break out as a result of the recent warmer weather. King believes that the majority of the fish are still in a late winter pattern, but as temperatures rise they’re dying to go shallow and feed up for the spawn. As a result of last year’s high water conditions, both King and Morgenthaler expect the fishery to be in top-notch shape.

“Last year it got really, really high for a long time,” Morgenthaler said. “When that happens, especially in a lake with no grass, it’s usually phenomenal the next year. All those fish have been unmolested and now they’re concentrated and bigger and better than ever. The spawn goes better and their survival rate is better.”

History Lesson
FLW Outdoors held their Stren Series Championship on Table Rock last November, and the event was won by Texan David Curtis, who put together four consecutive limits that averaged 14 pounds apiece, including a 22-pound plus sack on the final day to beat Greg Bohannan, who brought 20 pounds to the scales himself. It took right at 24 pounds over two days to make the top ten cut.

The last tour-level event held at Table Rock was Todd Faircloth’s September 2006 BASS Elite Series victory there. He averaged a little over 12 pounds a day for four days to claim the victory. The last check, 50th place, was claimed by Stephen Browning with just over ten pounds for three days.

It’s not clear whether the differential in weights between the two tournaments is attributable to the time of year, the condition of the lake, some combination of the two or different factors altogether, but expectations are high. 

Morgenthaler believes it will take “close to 80 pounds to win the tournament and 12 pounds a day to get a check.” 

King is a little less optimistic, but not much. “It’s real hard to say, but to make the (top ten) cut it could take 17 or 18 pounds a day.” He said that one complicating factor is the amount of fishing pressure he expects to see on the lake. There are Heartland pro-am and team tournaments on the lake during the weekend, and “they’ll all be practicing while we’re out there, so that could cut down on the weights some on the weekend. There’s going to be boat traffic all over, especially in the rivers.”

Patterns and Areas
South Carolina FLW Tour pro Michael Murphy, who fished the November Stren Championship at Table Rock, believes that in a spring tournament like this one, the event could be won on any part of the lake and on any one of a number of techniques.

“I’ve been waiting for this type of tournament for a long time,” he said. “You should be able to catch quantities cranking a Wiggle Wart or a flat-sided crankbait like an Ima Shaker. A jig could play into it, too and there will be some perimeter baits like a jigging spoon, a dropshot, a shakey head and swimming a grub. But I believe that your bigger fish are going to come on a jerkbait. In the ideal situation I’ll catch numbers on a crankbait or jib and then throw a jerkbait the rest of the day for a big fish.”

FLW Cup champion Michael Bennett has not previously fished Table Rock but says he has done his research: “It’s predominantly a clear lake with some stained water up the rivers. The better weights tend to come from certain areas. One year it could be 50 miles form the ramp, another year it could be 20 miles from the ramp.” 

Localitis?
While he has extensive experience with clear water, Bennett claims to be baffled by Kentucky spots: “They’re unpredictable for me so I’ll concentrate on largemouths and smallmouths,” he said. He also said that he has struggled on Beaver Lake, in the same chain, but he comes into the event with an open mind

Morgenthaler said that local knowledge could play a key role. While prespawn staging areas will be a focus for most anglers, those who have an area of where the bigger weights tend to come from may have an advantage. He’ll “probably end up grinding it out in areas where (he feels) comfortable.” 

King agreed that local knowledge could prove to be important, particularly on the weekend when the lake gets ultra-crowded. In fact, he’s “hoping to use the fact that there’s so many boats to (his) advantage.” 

But King also recognized that the crowded conditions will likely play into his hands only if the fish remain in a late winter pattern, similar to what it was before the lake went off limits.

“If they move up, then local knowledge won’t make a flitter of difference,” he said.

The Weather Factor
Yes, the pros will see some warm temps during the official practice, highs in the 70's.  But the forecast is calling for temps to dive into the upper 20's for lows beginning on Wednesday and high temps in the mid to upper 40's.  What was found during practice may disappear on day 1.  This week will be very interesting on the Rock.